PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might reduce its daily ship transits to approximately 29 vessels in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and indicated this possibility amid El Niño-related threats to reservoir levels. The canal requires freshwater from lakes fed by rainfall to operate its locks effectively. Following below-average precipitation across the watershed, the Panama Canal Authority has already initiated phased capacity reductions.
Since Sept. 3, the canal has offered nine daily Neopanamax slots alongside 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 capacity. As of Sept. 15, Panamax availability will decline to 23 slots, reducing the overall daily capacity to 32. These adjustments come in response to decreased rainfall during Panama’s wet season and lower inflows into the canal watershed. Water conservation measures and stricter booking policies are currently in place, with ongoing monitoring of Gatun Lake and other vital water sources.
During fiscal year 2026 up until June 30, the waterway averaged 35 transits each day, based on official operating data. From October to June, it recorded a total of 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These figures predate the recent rainfall decline, which has prompted tighter operational restrictions. As a key link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the canal facilitates major trade routes involving containers, energy products, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water scarcity restricts transit capacity
The canal’s locks depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships at each crossing, making reservoir levels a critical factor in determining how many vessels can transit during extended dry spells. The severe drought of 2023 saw daily transits drop to 22 in December, as Gatun Lake levels fell to notably low levels. Subsequently, capacity was increased following rainfall improvements and conservation efforts that helped stabilize water supplies for both canal operations and public use.
In addition, the canal has implemented adjustments to vessel draft limits as part of its water management strategies. On Sept. 4, officials postponed a planned decrease in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The existing 48-foot draft limit remains effective after reviewing Gatun Lake’s current levels and revised weather forecasts. Draft limits are essential, as they restrict how deeply vessels can sit in the water, which is especially significant for ships carrying heavier loads.
Operational booking procedures evolve amid capacity reductions
Furthermore, the canal has revised its booking and auction procedures as capacity continues to tighten. Currently, daily auction slots categorize vessels by their cargo type—including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other factors are equal, full container ships with higher carrying capacities are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities have urged vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as reduced capacity may lead to longer wait times. Securing a confirmed reservation remains the only method to guarantee a specific transit date.
To date, there has been no official order to further cut the limit to 29 ships per day. The administrator mentioned that this figure could be a target for restriction in February or March should dry conditions not improve. The canal’s experts continue to monitor rainfall patterns, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing additional operational measures. Meanwhile, the Río Indio reservoir project is advancing to expand water storage capacity over the long term. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader strategy to ensure water availability for canal operations and the country’s population, which exceeds half a million people.